Study Presentation Summary
Feb. 22, 2016 the Avon Community School Board held a working session with Dr.
Susan Brudvig presenting the Demographic Study recently prepared for the
district. The Demographic Study was commissioned as a follow up to the
Efficiency Task Force’s work in the spring of 2015 during which boundaries and
growth were discussed. At that time the Board elected not to address possible
school boundary adjustments until an enrollment forecast could be completed.
Brudvig presented the key findings (see 12-slide handout and/or the entire 70+
- Enrollment Growth will continue to be steady but not
explosive. (Slides 3 and 4 in handout)
- Enrollment Growth in our community is primarily a
function of new residential construction with an estimated 50 school-aged
children for every 100 new homes. (Slide 16)
- Once a housing permit is issued, it takes approximately
two years until children impact enrollment.
- Apartments yield fewer students/unit than houses with
30 school-aged children/100 units.
- “Aging in place” is a factor that mitigates the impact
of new construction. When a resident no longer has school-aged children
but remains in his/her home, that existing home doesn’t contribute new
children to the district. The recent decline in home sales is being felt.
Whether aging-in-place continues to influence remains to be seen.
- According to Census data the 50+ year population in
Washington Township is growing at a faster rate than the total population.
- The enrollment forecast includes a base, low and high
forecast for next year, five years from now and 10 years from now. (Slides
10, 11, and 12)
- For grades K-4 the forecast for 2016-17 ranges from a
low of +13 students to a high of +103 across all seven elementary schools.
- For grades 5-6 the forecast ranges from a low of -70
students to a high of -35 students.
- For grades 7-8 the forecast ranges from a low of +38
students to a high of +58 students.
- For high school the forecast ranges from a low of -27
students to -7 students.
Fewer students are anticipated in the intermediate schools and high schools in
the short term. Very modest growth is forecast for elementary and middle
schools. Without new residential development enrollment would decline.
important information is contained in the full demographic study including:
- Narrative (Pages 61-65)
- Forecast methodology and assumptions (Page 18)
- Historical trends in enrollment/construction (Pages 19
- Birth rates in Hendricks County (Page 29)
- Housing permit history (Page 47)
- Private school enrollment (Page 31)
- Enrollment forecast by grade levels (Pages 33-37)
- Population forecast in north and south of township
Steps: The Board will have further discussion at its next
regularly scheduled meeting on Monday, March 7 at 7 p.m. in the Administration
Center. The demographic study, coupled with other input, will be used for
future planning. However, the Board did foreshadow its belief that adjusting
K-4 boundaries will not be necessary for the 2016-17 school year. Additionally,
building a new school does not appear to be imminent. However, portable
classrooms at Hickory have been updated in case they are needed, and
modifications to some existing schools may be needed in the case of
overcrowding and/or a need for modernization (AIS East).